More sports mathematics, via Kevin Drum: David Romer of Berkeley analyzes Football. Specifically, the decision about when to go for another play instead of punting or attempting a field goal on a fourth down. According to his math, one should go for it much more frequently than the coaches actually do. The chart on Drum's post describes a very simple deterministic algorithm: go for it if the yardage needed for the first down is below some crazy function of the field position. But presumably one could do a more tailored analysis for each game based on the offensive and defensive strengths of the two teams...